The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A benign day for equities yesterday saw SPX close up 0.2% and NDQ 0.7% lower. Futures are basically unchanged this morning while interest rates have continued their progression higher which sees 2Y now back to 4%. It's certainly been quieter on the headline front, and actually we saw most US Bank stocks end in the green yesterday. Will all of this now just blow over? I don't know but it's certainly a question I've been asking myself and I'm sure many have. It's hard to think we don't see more things come out of the woodworks (I mean there must be loads of other banks out there sitting on huge mtm losses from government bonds) but regulators and decision makers probably know this and you would imagine they take actions to prevent it from getting worse. I do think there's an element of "no news is good news" here so the longer we go on for without anything bad getting announced the higher the propensity will be to rally (think FTX crash and people waiting and waiting and maybe even still waiting for the contagion after).
CRYPTO - We fell yesterday on headlines that Binance was being accused by the CFTC for illegally soliciting US clients. For whatever reason, the US seems to have it in for Binance and indeed this is now the 4th time we've see regulatory FUD surrounding the company. The thing is, I think the market always overreacts to such headlines; worst case scenario Binance gets a massive fine and then it pays it and then we move on. It's not like that in itself is specifically bad for ETH or BTC and I think the fragility of the market and the propensity to panic often causes strange price action that soon recovers pretty quickly. I think people like Adam Cochran tend to overcomplicate things a bit too much and always "assume the worst" (see this thread:
) when the reality is actually far less harsh. We've seen crypto bounce off yesterday's knee-jerk lows, at least for now.
NFTs - We saw 55m of marketplace volumes with Blur interestingly losing a decent amount of market share dropping back to 57%. It's quite clear to me as I look through the volume numbers that Blur farming seems to have massively massively died down and I can only imagine some are licking their wounds there. Nakamigos have recently been talk of the town, a project that was a free claim for those holding the End of Sartoshi NFT has seen about 4.2k ETH in volume in the past few days which has taken its floor price up to 0.192, although down from yesterday's highs of 0.25ETH. There are rumours that the team behind it is Larva Labs, I have seen the type of shitty rumour spread by EXACTLY the same people time and time again and while I think the art of this project is cool and it was a classy gift from Sartoshi, I would be highly wary of buying into speculation and rumours on a certain expectation. Finally, we saw Otherside rally and in particular Kodas after Yuga Labs announced the "Legend of Mara" which is a 2D game that will see heavy involvement of Kodas. Personally, I find it daunting/confusing to have to get smart on another whole thing after we just had the whole Dookey Dash/HV-MTL stuff. I suppose it's important to recognise the Yuga ecosystem is huge now and I think they will have great success and those who spend time to learn it will make lots of money, but I'm a big believer in simplicity so personally it's not for me...again...emphasis on the word "personally" - each to their own.
GL today!