The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Stocks had yet another tough day yesterday falling by 0.5% on SPX and 1.4% on NDQ, that takes us to about 3.5% off the highs on NDQ and most of that move has come this week. Futures are slightly in the green this morning however. We saw a bit of a rally in interest rates yesterday which takes 2Y below 4.7% for the first time in a while, but we're still within a narrow range. The next big macro datapoint we are looking towards at the moment is going to be NEXT Friday which will be payrolls. We then don't get another FOMC until 25-26th July and that will be the last one before we break for summer. TBH the importance of FOMCs seem to be dwindling for me as the Fed seems pretty stubborn on its current outlook so I don't expect a big change although markets are still pricing in a probability of a rate cut by the end of the year. It'll be interesting to see how inflation fares for the next 6 months as we topped out around about a year ago, and comps from here actually get tougher.
CRYPTO - No big moves really, BTC still holding in at 30.3K which for me is impressive. For the chartists out there there is a lot of chatter that it has formed/is forming a bull flag - of course I personally treat that with a pinch of salt. Alts to me still look like they're lagging and ETH has drifted a little bit more down to 1875. It puts BTC dominance at 51.7% and it puts ETH/BTC at 0.062 which is thru YTD lows. It makes sense logically when you think about it, because the big headline was the application of multiple BTC ETFs - but personally I think that just means it's an attractive entry point for ETH here RELATIVE to BTC. For other alts it's tougher to say but IMO we will see a moment in the next few months where BTC dominance falls meaningfully due to an altcoin rally; the hard part of that trade is picking the right altcoins (IMO you probably want to have a basket of the most heavily shorted coins).
NFTs - After a little bit of respite it looks like we've headed back lower again Azuki, BAYC, MAYC, Beanz, DeGods and more all down about 5-7%. Looking at the 30D moves on a lot of this stuff and we are down 20-30% which is brutal, although somewhat mitigated in USD terms given ETH's recent rally. The big story now is the upcoming Elementals mint for Azuki, which will have a 20K supply. I believe 10K of these were airdropped to Azuki holders and the rest/unclaimed will be sold in a dutch auction starting at 2ETH. That's certainly punchy but I suppose it's a dutch auction and the price will settle at "fair market value" with many expecting it to simply mint out at 2ETH...interesting given Beanz trade below that. We have seen some big mints thrive in this space this year but it's primarily been focused in the higher-end art part of the market so curious to see how this goes.
REPORTS - This week we have 9 reports but the attention today, of course, is all on Azuki Elements. Elements are the next chapter in the Azuki ecosystem dropping 9:00 PT for Azuki holders, then 9:10 PT for Beanz holders, and for the many that don’t own any Azuki assets, 9:20 PT open to the public. They will be dropped as a Dutch auction, starting at 2ETH, with a total supply of 20k. So what exactly are elements and why do they warrant this price? The collection will include 4 elements, earth, fire, lightning and water (mimicking the success of Pokémon). As well as this, there will be different levels of rarity traits that will be revealed upon mint. A lot about the collection is unknown, however the artwork that has been revealed is TOP TIER. Checking out their reveal video below, it is clear to see why the entire NFT space is excited!
https://twitter.com/Azuki/status/1672502507963023360?s=20
GL today!