The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - After closing modestly higher yesterday in stocks, futures are opening the day unchanged for the most part. As it stands, the SPX is up 2.3% YTD and NDQ up 8.5% - reasonable returns for a year which many came in feeling very concerned. Interest rates remain relatively stable here with 10Y hovering around that 3.95% area. I haven't talked much about oil this year and that's because its price has been relatively stable, not budging much outside of a 75-78 range. Inflation-wise we got yet another datapoint which is a bit concerning, the PCE which increased by 5.4% in January, more than expected and an actual increase vs the previous month. For me that is once again a cause for concern as we seem to continuously be getting macro datapoints that are showing that inflation is perhaps not at bay as we would wish it. I still think that CPI will continue to progress lower through the year due tot he lagged impacts on shelter but there is an argument to say the market got a little bit ahead of itself to start the year.
CRYPTO - A bit of red across the board with BTC down to 23.2K and ETH at 1620. Altcoins are down a further 5-10% with $BLUR continuing to progress lower down to 79c, $APE dropping sub 5, SOL down to 22 etc...a few different coins breaking through psychological "big figure" points. Crypto weakness rn is an extension from what we're seeing in macro and with BTC up 40% YTD and ETH up 36% YTD it does leave a lot of room for error. I still do think and believe we end the year with crypto having significantly outperformed macro (unless regulatory concerns take off), but it does feel like any upside rally from her will require a clearer macro picture, or some weird technical pump.
NFTs - Volumes still strong with a similar DNA to what we've been seeing in the last few days, $90m market-wide and Blur with an approx 70% market share once again. Floor prices of projects are rather mixed but the overall trend seems to be one of drifting lower. One thing that I think is good for NFTs headline wise is if we see some reports showing that NFT volumes are on the uptick again...I suppose we just don't know how sustainable all of this is but yeah. I'll stick to what I've been saying for a while in that I think long-term bags you want to hold projects with strong and proven communities, and short-term feel free to degen whatever you want because there has been some solid plays this year and I think there are/will be more.
GL today!