The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Alright, well stocks look like they had a solid day yesterday up 0.6% and 0.7% on both the SPX and NDQ while interest rates had a pretty substantial rally from their recent highs with 2Y back to 5% (having been at 5.1%) and 10Y down to 4.19%. The UK was out yesterday on a bank holiday and next monday is Labour Day in the US so typically this is expected to be a quiet week for markets but also a week that will mark the end of summer. What we do have this week is payrolls which will kick off the next few weeks of important data. At present the expectation is for that to come in at 170k vs last month's 187k and also for unemployment to tick up to 6.8%. We had some hefty "beats" on payrolls this year but the last few prints have finally started to trend lower and I think markets will be "hoping" for more of the same in order to keep interest rates at bay. My fear here would be to see a very large number which causes new highs for interest rates.
**CRYPTO** - I mean it's boring af with BTC at 26K and ETH at 1645 still as they've barely budged. Bitcoin dominance has remained at 49.2% which is around where we've been tracking for the last few days. I have to say this has been the most frustrating period of crypto I've ever experienced in my short 2 year stint in this market...a lot of inexplicable price action, low volumes and just a general lack of excitement. I know that usually precedes some big activity and there is always some fireworks towards the end of the year. Markets tend to be very busy in September/October after the summer period but Sep is usually a bearish month so let's hope that doesn't come true here. Elsewhere there continues to be a lot of chat on $PEPE which has drifted to lows not seen since it rocketed to a $1.7bn market cap after partial dev supply was sold. Allegedly there was a fallout within the dev team which leaves one or two remaining devs with 2.5% of the supply, with a further alleged 3-4% of supply in insider wallets out there. I think the most bullish thing that could happen here is for all that supply to be burnt which would make the coin feel truly decentralised, but of course its reputation is incredibly tarnished as it stands although sometimes I think events like these can build lore, and think about how centralised something like $DOGE or $SHIB is.
**NFTs** - It seems like the recent "bounce" in NFTs has held but volumes are incredibly low with just $9.3m trading in the market overall in the last 24H. Usually volumes are a good thing for price but given the Blur farming dynamic we've seen this year it feels like to me that low volumes are maybe a good thing right now as it means there's less farming/dumping going on, and maybe that ends up becoming a sign that tells us if we're closer to the bottom or not. This concept of "whoever wanted to sell is now finally done, and the people left holding are the true believers or the ones that don't care", such that any incremental buying has a significant impact on price as there is no true supply. I suppose looking at % supply listed over the long term is going to be a good metric there and I think when stuff goes to sub 2% then that's probably a pretty bullish sign.
GL this week!