The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - A tough day for equities yesterday which closed about 1.5% lower on both SPX and NDQ. Futures are basically unchanged this morning while interest rates have edged higher but remain in a relatively stable range. Oil also seems to have found some stability sub $80. Yesterday's weakness was caused by the instability in China, but we've already bounced off those lows and personally I don't think what's going on there is a big needle mover for US equities right now. What's certainly more important is payrolls on Friday, and I certainly think the next few days are simply just noise going into that. TBH, payrolls itself may not be enough to cause volatility, IMO we would need a big miss or big "beat" for that to happen. It's pretty clear that CPI is a bigger needle mover if you look back thru this year.
CRYPTO - Just a bit meh really, the volatility completely sapped out of crypto once again. BTC at 16.5K and ETH just above 1200 again. I have to say I'm pretty surprised we haven't moved higher off these levels. It's been a while now since the FTX stuff, we've seen bankruptcies...I guess there is some potential tail risk out there with Grayscale among other things but it feels like to me crypto is one catalyst away from getting back to higher levels and personally I think the potential macro tailwinds from data in the next couple of weeks could be a moving factor. One thing that has had continued strength is $APE which traded as high as $4.2 yesterday, up another 10% and has settled around the $4.15 area.
NFTs - Volumes on the Yuga front still pretty strong with another 1K ETH trading across BAYC, MAYC and Otherside while prices have remained relatively stable. There was a lot of activity in Valhalla yesterday with a big dingaling sweep taking the floor about 20% higher to just north of 0.6ETH. While volumes in the rest of the space remain pretty low, it generally seems like floor prices are trending upwards while listings have also increased. As we approach the end of the year I think many will be looking to or hoping for some kind of NFT resurgence in 2023. I'm a big believer in the calendar effect (risk-on for January) and I think there are a couple of potential stimulus-type effects with $BLUR being the main one, and maybe some "value" created from $APE. Also worth noting we saw a very large Fidenza sale yesterday to the tune of 500ETH!
GL today
-OSF