The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - We see a continued rally in risk assets. Equities had a very strong finish yesterday closing 2.5% higher on both SPX and NDQ, futures this monring are pointing up another 1-1.2% on both. This rally is being led by the continued collapse in interest rate yields, with the curve about 3-10bps lower again this morning. It puts 2y/5y/10y/30y at 401/380/359/365bps respectively. That's like a 35-40bp rally across the whole curve from recent highs, a pretty huge move. The curve actually now prices in interest rate CUTS in the first half of 2023. Something I've noticed is interest rates often rally when the consensus number for some economic data is released. We saw it last month with the consensus figure for inflation, and we're seeing now with the consensus for payrolls coming at 250k vs 315k last month. I think the problem with that is if we are higher than 250k, you could renewed selloff (like we saw post that inflation number last month).
CRYPTO - We've edged higher with macro but not seeing big or huge moves here, BTC is at 19.8K and ETH is at 1338. It's crazy, but in the last few weeks the vol in US treasuries feels like it's been greater than in that of crypto for the past few days. Pretty wild, as majors here continue to remain rangebound and relatively resilient. I think the continued "thing to watch out for" will be $APE into staking. 31st October is the launch date, and I think price action has been tepid because we have a whole CPI number and Fed to get through in between. Had it not been for the macro vol I would have certainly expected that to be a lot higher, and indeed the upcoming macro events will certainly pose legitimate risks. Def something to keep an eye on tho as we're about 4 weeks away and I expect chatter to intensify as we get closer.
NFTs - The continued rally in RENGA is impressive with there being another 1.2K ETH of volumes in the last 24H seeing the floor rise more than 30% to 3ETH. We just continue to continue to continue to see focus and value accrue in art-first projects. Elsewhere volumes are actually pretty small, the next. highest not in that ecosystem is Otherdeed at just north of 200E. While there continues to feel like there is a lot going on in NFTs it still appears to be contained within a handful of projects with regard to volumes. Even so called bluechips such as Doodles, Azuki etc saw just 54E and 32E of volumes respectively, with less than 10 sales across both of those complexes. I believe in a bull market coming back in NFTs but I wonder if there is room for the same things to rally back IDK. Once again, I still think the biggest thing upcoming is $APE and Yuga asset staking. GL today!
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