The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Certainly a soft close to equities yesterday with both SPX and NDQ closing about 1.8% lower as the market retraced some of its recent gains. Futures are up a tiny amount this morning, 0.2%. Interest rates have really seen a lack of volatility of late, although I think that can and will change with CPI and the FOMC next week. The curve currently stands at 437/377/357/359bps across 2/5/10/30y. The move lower yesterday came after ISM data (showing economic activity in the services sector) once again rose, to 56.5 vs 54.5 in October and also vs expectations of 53.3. This, along with payrolls last Friday, shows that the economy is currently "not as bad as people are fearing" and it reduces the case for the Fed to pause on interest rates. Maybe I'm too optimistic here but I can't help but think of the fact that we've seen inflation drop for 5 months in a row ahead of increasingly easier comps for next year while the economy seems OK so far. I know a lot of the effects are lagged (housing market, labour market) so maybe we just simply haven't seen the worst of it yet, but it's definitely food for thought.
CRYPTO - A continued lack of volatility in crypto sees majors at just below 17K and 1250 on both BTC and ETH respectively. Don't really have much to add here other than I think the risks are still massively skewed towards the upside. Yesterday we saw the first day of $APE staking which allows people to commit funds, after which rewards will start to accrue on 12th December. $APE is back to local highs of around 4.2. As things stand it looks like the MAYC pool would be a 464.8% yield if we get 80% participation. It feels like the me that participation might initially be a lot lower, so the yields could be higher than that. We'll see on 12th Dec:
NFTs - Pudgy Penguins have been one of the most topical after the FP increased by 17% after we saw a 100E+ sweep yesterday. Elsewhere CloneX appear to be one of the most prominent losers declining 9% to a 6.66E floor price after criticism of MNLTH 2 only giving preferential access to purchase their new "CryptoKick" physical shoe as opposed to it being a free claim, with delivery only being available in the US. The Yuga ecosystem has been relatively steady so far, again, I think we have to wait until 12th December to see the real/big price action there. Finally, we saw another 100E in rektguy trading in the last 24H which takes the floor up a further 5% to 0.73, the highest it's been in 6 months. I made a 15E purchase yesterday of a gold rektguy with the rekt logo, big shades and earphones. A little bit punchy but it's one that I've been after for a while that I kept missing and I had to pull the trigger on it as for me it's pfp worthy. Thanks everyone for the support there and we hope to see many years of continued rektage!
GL today
-OSF