The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Traditional markets actually had a reasonably strong day yesterday with both SPX and NDQ closing 1% higher. That came as interest rates had a bit of a selloff but now seem stabilised at 471/438/420/432bps across 2/5/10/30Y points of the curve. Oil remains elevated above $90 which I think is the low-key concern of this month. Today we have the US midterm elections. What impacts could these have for markets? The answer to such questions is always pretty mixed IMO. At present all eyes are on whether Republicans can win control of either or both of the Senate and the House. I think the market seems to think this would be the best outcome (ie a split government) but I'm not an expert on US politics and my observation is that current monetary policy is going to be far more impactful for markets in both the near and medium term (ie there hasn't been a lot of index-level vol in markets that can realistically be attributed to midterm election noise). For me, Thursday's CPI number is going to cause a bigger move in markets.
CRYPTO - After a powerful streak over the past few sessions we've seen a big leg lower in crypto with BTC down to 19.6K, ETH down to 1475 and altcoins down about 10-15% across the board. This comes as $FTT, which had been holding steadily at the $22 level that Caroline claimed they would buy at, fell through overnight and dropped to as low as $15 before recovering to around the $17 area. I'm seeing stuff online about people having trouble withdrawing money from FTX. Not sure if that's true or not, one thing I would always say is never keep your money on exchanges. Inevitably you may have some there if you have limit orders set and what not, but in general if you're not planning to do anything with it in the short term it's always best to keep them OFF exchanges, where they are in custody of someone else. It's an old saying that will always hold true; not your keys not your crypto. I'm not sure how much merit there is to all the FTX stuff; I think some of it is definitely true (wrt borrowing against $FTT etc) but I think that doesn't necessitate FTX being insolvent. Ultimately I think SBF is pretty smart, and you have to image there are a lot of shorts in $FTT right now, curious to see if they will have a crack at throwing capital at it to squeeze said shorts out. Thing is it's. battle of big dicks with CZ on the other side who has plenty of it to sell as stated...curious to see how this all ends.
NFTs - It's hard to ignore what was a very big volume day for BAYC, with over 1K ETH in volumes being posted overnight as j1mmy.eth purchased a range of apes. Does he know something? Well we will never know for sure. We know what the potential tailwinds are for this project, with the main one being staking. It's been months since we've seen a 1K+ ETH day for apes so I'm curious to see if anything transpires out of this. Away from that floors are mostly unchanged but the big decline is in Art Gobblers which has fallen by a further 42% to a 4ETH floor.
GL today!