The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - So inflation was a "beat" this morning with the headline number coming in at 5% vs expectations of 5.2% and vs last month's 6%. Core inflation came in line, while the MoM inflation also came in below expectations, at just 0.1%. For me this is a pretty sizeable beat and shows the power of "easy comps" at this time of the year. Note, June was the month we saw 9.1% inflation in the US, so there is something to be said for comps still getting easier over the next 2-3 months after which it becomes a bit more unclear. This is the 9th month in a row that inflation has now fallen...just FYI for those that said inflation would still be a problem throughout 2022 and into 2023. Stock futures like the numbers and are so far 0.7-0.8% higher, while we saw a reasonable rally in interest rates that takes 2Y to 393bps and 10Y to 337bps (note we are still not even at the lows we saw in the last few days there, and there appears to still be a 67% probability of a 25bp Fed hike next month in May). Overall I think these are very strong numbers but there is an element of expectations having been built in, but it's hard for me not to see a continued macro rally in stocks now for the rest of April unless something else drastic changes.
CRYPTO - It's funny because crypto isn't moving a tonne with BTC at 30.2K and ETH at 1885. I wonder if that's because the narrative has changed slightly there where worsening inflation was starting to be seen as bullish for BTC again with the market knowing the Fed is limited in how much it can raise rates given the banking issues. Certainly an interesting proposition there and some food for thought. Either that, or we truly have just decoupled from macro. Today we have the Shanghai upgrade for ETH which will unlock 3.3M ETH ($6.2bn) from staking. I'm not sure what time it happens..can't seem to find it, but we'll finally find out if this ends up being a bearish supply unlock or one that doesn't have a big impact; I'm in the latter camp but I feel like most people are.
NFTs - $57m of marketplace volumes yesterday on a quieter day. Prices seem to have receded slightly, with Captainz outperforming rising 16% to a floor of 7.55ETH. Honestly something that's quite depressing is if you pull up some NFT charts and look at 1Y history..a lot of big projects just showing a slow and steady decline which is kind of painful to see. Despite my recent doom and gloom I genuinely don't believe NFTs are dead and I think some communities are going to thrive and prices flourish in the next bull run (which there will be), but I do believe only a few can remain standing at the end of the year and those are the ones that either have a massive war chest of funds or don't need require many funds to operate. Cheers and looking forward to seeing everyone at the Rekt Show tonight!
GL today
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