The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - A rather interesting day yesterday. Inflation came in at 6.4% vs expectations of 6.2%, the first "miss" we've seen in a while and only 0.1pp lower than last month. At first glance I really though we would see a sell off here (especially given last month's payrolls number) and was surprised to see stocks initially rally, although they then sold off and then rallied back again lol - so it was a volatile day in equities. SPX ended the day unch'd and NDQ up 0.7%. Once again the continued tightness in the labour market is to blame for inflation remaining "sticky", on the plus side, shelter, which accounts for 1/3 of CPI seems to have topped out. While I wouldn't call this number a step in the wrong direction, I do think it's a cautious reminder that we are not yet out of the woods. We next hear from the FOMC on 22nd March so we have another payrolls and inflation number to get through - if those go in the wrong direction I would start to be feeling more bearish short term.
CRYPTO - Holding pretty steady across the board with BTC just above 22K and ETH at 1550. Altcoins are all over the place with some such as $APE climbing 5-7% and others such as $CANTO shedding a further 10-15%. There were some rumours yesterday about SEC x USDC but it seems to have been a false alarm. One thing I would be wary of though is that Gensler does seem on a mission and while I think regulatory FUD should be bought, I would note that tails just got fatter (ie higher probability of black swans). Indeed we have a new entrant on our radar, $BLUR, which currently sits at a price of 78c. That puts it at an undiluted market cap of $280m but a fully diluted market cap of $2.34bn which I think is wildly above most people's estimates. It feels like to me that perhaps most people have sold for ETH
and thus given the low circulating supply there isn't too much supply for now.
NFTs - As expected, it does seem like a portion of $BLUR rewards have been thrown into NFTs. Despite only seeing $38m of volumes market wide, most collections are up between 10-20% with good volumes across the board. Interestingly yesterday was the first day in a while where I saw Blur actually have higher volumes than OS. At the top of the charts are Otherdeed, MAYC, Beanz and Azuki which all saw 1K+ ETH in volumes. Most of the top 20 on my screen seem to be projects with strong and proven communities and IMO that's where a lot of these profits get rolled to, rather than any new or recent meta which have pumped and then subsequently dumped. It does appear there will be a season 2 of $BLUR airdrop so tbh with this stimulus and future plans I think we may well be in for another mini or even sustained bull run in NFTs. Let's see if it happens.
GL today!