The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - We had a decent rebound in stocks yesterday but they ended the day off the highs, roughly 1% higher on both. Futures are starting the day unchanged. Interest rates have once again edged higher putting the curve at 450/429/407/407bps respectively on 2s/5s/10s/30s. In other news UK inflation came in at 10.1% vs 9.9% in August which is certainly worrying...not heading in the right direction there. Tough to compare countries but there's at least a small degree of correlation. Oil continues to hover around the $82-83 area and my expectation is that continues to go lower. It's a real tough one in the markets at the moment. Some days I wake up and feel we're going to see a huge rally given overall bearishness and positioning. Other days I fear we're going to see a horrific recession and things could actually get a lot uglier into 2023. It's a tough one to judge, and tbh it's very hard to predict without seeing more datapoints.
CRYPTO - seeing a bit of weakness again with BTC losing steam back towards 19K and ETH dipping below 1300 again. It's notable that alts were heavy yesterday, mostly down 5-7% across the board, and are down another 3-4% again today. A notable outperformer has been MATIC which sits at 86c, up from around 75c roughly a week ago. There continues to be a real lack of vol in crypto and leading from the above it's definitely tough to judge direction. An interesting stat that Mando put out yesterday is that open interest in crypto is the highest level we've ever seen, implying a lot of shorts are being initiated. Tough to say whether that's bullish or bearish, it does add to the thesis that positioning continues to be very bearish and it becomes just a question of which wins, fundamentals or technicals.
NFTs - Pretty quiet overall although there were decent volumes in BAYC with 4 sales totalling 356E, which takes the floor back up to 78E. Azuki and Beanz continue to be active but failed to hold onto recent gains with floors dropping ever so slightly to 11.3E and 0.96E respectively. Other than that, it's pretty quiet. I think we've seen some good activity in the last 2-3 weeks and the stability in ETH and broader crypto has certainly helped. I'm curious to see how the collectibles market fares during a recession, when people have less disposable income/less inclined to to take risk. The art and traditional collectibles market is often fairly resilient, but I think NFTs are more of a hybrid of that market and more traditional tradable risk asset classes. We'll see what happens. GL today.