Morning Update: Wed 1st Feb
Big FOMC day
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
MACRO - Markets bounced back with a vengeance yesterday with SPX and NDQ both closing 1.5% higher after the weakness we saw on Monday. Although the ranges have been narrow, there's definitely been a bit of choppy trading to start the year...but I guess 1-2% swings are nothing compared to what we saw last year. It's notable that interest rates came off their local highs yesterday with 10Y dropping back down to 3.48%. Indeed, we have the Fed's press conference today and their interest rate decision. I would definitely be braced for some volatility today, especially during the press conference when Powell can say a range of different things that can often confuse markets. I think sentiment going in today feels kinda bullish; if Powell says "nothing hawkish" then we could really see a big rally, but my general expectation is that he will be hawkish, markets see some form of a dip, and then rally back (but I think everyone thinks this lol).
CRYPTO - Relatively stable price action over the past 24H which leaves the majors mostly unchanged at 23K on BTC and 1576 on ETH, interesting to see we didn't move up as much as I thought we would given the move in stocks. Altcoins are also just a tiny bit higher too. Not really much more to add here on crypto other than I have to expect that over the next 2-3 days we should start moving back in line with macro for a bit given the importance of the datapoints we see this week.
NFTs - Another 730ETH of volumes for Sewer Passes sees that floor hold stable at 2.4 ETH, while Apes continue to see consistent volume maintaining a floor of 72ETH. We saw the 6529 memes drop further yesterday to a floor of 0.29. It's interesting that 10 days ago we saw high sales on the Nakamoto card of 32ETH, but the most recent sale was 20ETH with the current market being around 11/27. For me, that's a leading indicator for "hype cycles" or "short-term trends" when you have the "OG" project starting to move lower. On the OE front we've of course seen many recent OEs drop off in price and I believe yesterday was the first day I heard commentary of flippers not being able to turn a successful profit from some OEs. With continuous supply, I can only think that part of the market is also headed lower. Before you all hate me, I'm just talking from a price/trading perspective and of course if you truly bought it for the art you don't care about the price, right?
For me, the thing to look for here is the countdown to $BLUR...hope you all have found a way to manage your Valentine's Day plans (where relevant).