The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Another strong day for tradfi yesterday which saw the SPX and NDQ close 1.3% and 1.4% higher respectively. Futures have given up a little bit of ground this morning. Interest rates for once seem to have stabilised although one could view any such stability as temporary. The curve currently lies as 414/371/359/373bps across 2/5/10/30y. Indeed, today we have the conclusion of the FOMC and the Fed interest rate decision announcement. As it stands, the overwhelming market expectation is for the Fed to hike by 25bps. I think there's a minuscule probability of a 50bp hike but there is a small chance they pause, which I think would be viewed as a knee-jerk bullish reaction for markets although perhaps raise medium to long-term concerns. What will also be important as always is the commentary that Powell gives and we are hoping for a dovish tone here. For me, I see no reason why Powell would come out hawkish here given the current fragility, but we've seen him disappoint multiple times in the last six months so I wouldn't put it out of the question.
CRYPTO - Holding steady with BTC at 28K and ETH at 1783...we did hit some higher levels yesterday but we seem to have receded those gains. Similarly, altcoins actually had a good day yesterday and BTC dominance dropped from around 48% to 47%...altcoins seem to be down today however. There is a lot of talk about a potentially upcoming "alt szn" - with GME pumping 50% after hours making people feel a little nostalgic and excited. It's a tough one here tbh, and here's where I stand. I personally do believe that if BTC pushes to 30-40k we will get a massive altcoin rally and I don't believe in the notion that BTC will gain dominance as it rallies over the course of this year. However, I have PTSD from buying altcoins because pretty much every single time I do it marks a local (or sometimes global) top. The other problem I have is I don't feel like I can underwrite the risk if I am wrong because I don't believe in most of these coins, so it's very tough to get caught holding the bag and take the L. Personally, I prefer to have more money invested in assets I have conviction on (like ETH) than have a little bit in some random shitcoins. Of course, sometimes you just take a flyer on something and can make monstrous returns (think minting BAYC or other NFTs) but honestly it's just a total gamble and I don't think we are yet in the environment of 2021.
NFTs - $68m of marketplace volumes sees Blur maintain a 67% market share. It's been well over a month now where Blur has dominated and I expect this to continue throughout the year with Blur deploying similar tactics as it tries to squeeze OpenSea out of the picture. Floor prices are mixed once again with a few things higher and a few things lower. It looks like Yuga's HV-MTL is rallying as we get closer to the Mecha reveal at the end of this month, while V1 Cryptopunks have shed 25% from there moment in the limelight yesterday. There's not much more to add here as NFTs have become so commoditised but we did see a few rare rektguy sales yesterday so it's nice to see that people still have some desire to truly collect.
GL today - it's a big one!
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