The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
**MACRO** - A benign day for equities yesterday saw SPX and NDQ close about 0.3% higher, while this morning we're having a relatively strong start with both indices up 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. The main thing to talk about here is interest rates which keep blowing higher in the US as 2Y hit 5.05% and 10Y hit 4.35% although we seem to have rallied off the highs. This big sell off seems to have occurred as the market starts to digest and realise the "higher for longer" narrative the Fed seems to keep reiterating and the data seems to point to. I think we've sort of come to the end of this honeymoon period of inflation lower each month and now there is real focus on what the outlook for the next 6-12 months could look like. Although we don't have an FOMC until late September, this week (Aug 24-26) we do have the Fed Symposium inside Jackson's Hole which is an important conference and we might hear more about what the Fed is thinking from it. Historically it's been a big one but last year it was kind of a nothing burger - def something to be aware of I would say re headlines tho.
**CRYPTO** - We did have a little wobble yesterday which saw BTC drop to 25.5k and ETH to 1615, but we've since seen it bounce back to 26K and 1640...I think it's pretty reassuring to see that dip get bough and not fall through the floor there but who knows. Sometimes I wonder if it's macro funds selling or shorting given what's going on in interest rates, honest answer is I'm not sure. Other thing worth noting is a lot of the favourite altcoins took like a 20-30% hit yesterday with stuff like RLB, hpos10, Unibot, MOG etc all taking some pain. Bitcoin dominance remains at around 49.2%. Not really sure what to add here crypto-wise, we've had a tough past few weeks, part of me wants to buy more here but I know the right answer is to be patient and DCA. I think it's worth noting that we are *lower* than where we were pre the Blackrock ETF news and thus I think that makes it an even stronger positive catalyst.
**NFTs** - Eugh it's pretty grim rn, it looks like everything is another 5-10% lower across the board; BAYC at 23.5, DeGods at 3.5, MAYC at 4.5, Captainz at 3.3, Azuki at 3.5....you get the gist. Moves in the last 30 days for most of these projects are like down 40-50% which is astonishing given a month ago we still felt like "NFTs are dead" and it's crazy that you can just keep falling *even further* but that's what you get when things go up 1000% and gravity comes into play. Where do we go from here? IDK but feels like lower still, I'm not sure who the incremental buyer here is at these levels still on things away from art/generative art etc where there is some thesis to owning what someone might perceive to be a "digital artefact". Away from that your XYZ animal pfp I think is in trouble still and when things return these could be replaced by new pfps. Let's see.
GL today