The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Not a great start to the day for stocks which find themselves almost 1% lower. The debt ceiling debacle continues with a deal still not completed as talks continue. It sounds like a deal needs to be completed by the end of the month to avoid a default. I think this is the point where complacent people like me who thought "this would all be fine" start to sweat as the headlines become seemingly worse. Interest rates continue to sell off pretty sharply and we're out to 4.3% now on 2Y and 3.7% on 10Y, but notably front-end interest rates have breached levels not seen in almost 20 years; for example, the yield at auction on a 21-day bill yesterday hit 6.2% which is kind of insane. I do think at this point if/when a deal is done we will see some market relief, but the probability is getting worse day by day.
CRYPTO - Indeed yesterday's price action did not hold and we've seen a rather sharp move lower in crypto today with BTC all the way back down to 26.3K and ETH at 1790. Altcoins are getting destroyed and I'm seeing 10-15% moves lower across my screen. Not sure what's specifically causing this move but there are a few things in macro going on rn and it would truly be remarkable if crypto continued to held up on a day where we have rates higher AND stocks lower so maybe it's that. For those clinging onto shitcoins, it's been an ugly couple of weeks and this is the thing about owning things where you're not sure if it has forever value or not anymore...it's hard to hold as the market pukes (whereas maybe the argument for BTC/ETH is a lot easier).
NFTs - Growing market volume saw $37m trade yesterday as cloor prices were mostly mixed. It looks like pfp stuff is down on the whole, while the recent art blocks pump has shed a little bit of its gains. A big mover is RarePass which is up 67% on just under 100ETH of volume. At 15ETH that was certainly an interesting one with a guaranteed XCOPY and Matt Kane drop still to come. I guess a guaranteed OSF drop too but who wants to own that shite anyways. On the whole there does seem to be some activity but my gut says we prob still have a lot of sell pressure that needs to clear before we can see any meaningful parabolic price action; as you've probably all noticed every pump in anything keeps getting sold still. More wood to chop!
GL today
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