The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone from a highly hungover version of myself
MACRO - I was hoping there wouldn't be much to write today but obvs there's been a lot of shit happening. Main thing is it looks like First Republic Bank could possibly die and it seems the US government is unwilling to step in on this occasion to save it. We saw heavy price action in equities yesterday on the back of this but stocks are up 0.2/1.3% respectively this am on SPX and NDQ. As you can imagine, interest rates has seen a continued rally on the back of FRC and we're looking at 3.95% rn on 2Y rates. It's gonna be interesting to see what the Fed does next week but the market continues to widely expect a 25bp hike but once again this is a reminder to the Fed that their ammo is becoming increasingly limited.
CRYPTO - The banking narrative has once again proven to be a tailwind for BTC which is back up to a whopping 29.8K which marks a 10% move over the past 24H, while ETH is back to 1950. It's certainly quite the surge in crypto and many may have done well buying the recent dip, certainly a courageous move. The price action this year has shown that the narrative of banking collapses will buoy BTC, it's a two-pronged effect in that it boldens BTC's use case but also calls for lower interest rates. It's impressive to see the rebound and I'm extremely curious as to the data/FOMC next week because this price action feels like to me if we get something a bit more dovish next week we have a good chance of breaking YTD highs. All comes down to our dear friend JPOW.
NFTs - A rather low volume day in the market with just 42m trading and interestingly a substantial drop in market share for Blur, falling to 46.1%. Price action is rather steady with no big moves here or there and thus I think with the third day of prices holding it does feel like we have reached some sort of bottom, a local one at least and it remains to be seen if there's any shot of it being a global one. Despite that, I do believe we are in a period of long consolidation of NFTs and the dumping into Blur bids still needs to be replaced into strong hands, as for now we are very much in a flipping/scalping game and we really do need a new injection of capital to the market to take things higher. I do believe it will happen, but the question is how much patience do you have, and what is the opportunity cost of your capital in that timeframe...
GL today
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