The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A tough day for stocks yesterday saw SPX close 1.1% lower and NDQ 0.9% lower. SPX underperformed after US regional bank stocks got destroyed once again yesterday in fear of continuing rate hikes by the Fed. The thing to watch out for is the KRE which is the regional banking ETF and that has shed about 5% in the last 5 days to 52-week low as of yesterday. It certainly makes the conclusion of today's FOMC much more interesting, as if JPOW communicates there are further hikes, it could have a massive and horrific impact on banking as a whole. Last FOMC the Fed communicated that they felt that risk was contained and that they could continue on their path, but tbh, if Powell is the slightest bit hawkish from this presser I think you're going to see banking stocks get destroyed and a big risk-off sentiment overall (which is why I think Powell will be more muted or possibly less hawkish than usual). We get the interest rate decision at 1PM EST (expectation is for a 25bp hike) and then the press conference at 1.30PM EST.
CRYPTO - Crypto has been sturdy in the last 24H with BTC and ETH wanting to pump but generally seeing their rallies get sold. We're currently at 28.3K for BTC and 1850 for ETH. Altcoins are certainly suffering and I'm seeing plenty of familiar faces break out to handle changes lower with $APE now at 3.77, $BLUR at 0.57 and $CANTO at 0.24 which seem like big losers to me vs how they were doing earlier in the year. It does seem increasingly clear to me that the "bad for banks" narrative does directly translate to "good for crypto" so far, and it certainly seems to benefit BTC the most. So it's kind of a funny one in that if the Fed does raise rates and banks get crushed, even though higher rates has tended to be a poor narrative for crypto, we may see things actually continue to outperform.
NFTs - We had another dire day of marketplace volumes yesterday with just $38m trading. I think it's safe to say people are more focused on shitcoins than NFTs right now and I'm sure that has a big part to play here (as well as Blur rewards ending/becoming hazy). The good thing is that shitcoin szn is always temporary so I do think we'll see a return to NFTs at some point but for now people will simply follow the money. Floor prices look to be fairly flat with recent winners such as Azuki giving up gains, but generally it does feel rather quiet out there as we await the 3AC auction in a couple of weeks.
GL today!
NOTE:
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