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Morning Update: Wed 6th September
Higher for longer again
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
**MACRO** - Not a great start for equities which find themselves down a further 0.5% and 0.8% on SPX and NDQ respectively. Interest rates are once again feeling heavy with 2Y back above 5% and 10Y out to 4.28%...feels like the "higher for longer" narrative is coming back into play and today we had ISM Services data which came in a material amount ahead of expectations. It's not the most important metric imo but as you can see right now it's a battle of narratives and the wind blows whichever way the data points each time. I'm very curious to see what the consensus expectations are for inflation next month. Oil prices were elevated for most of lat month and at present we're sitting at YTD highs there, so I think the expectation is likely that we see higher inflation to last month's 3.2%. The energy volatility will renew focus on core inflation and we'll be hoping for that to stay flat, but tbh we need to see consensus numbers come out to give the market a barometer.
**CRYPTO** - It continues to be weak for crypto with BTC dropping to 25.6k and ETH to 1625, it's kind of like death by a thousand cuts here. For me the biggest risk to crypto is actually macro; I know we've not had a lot of correlation to macro in the past few days but let's say we start to see higher inflation here with stocks close to ATHs, I think knee-jerk reaction is a risk off move where everything *could* move lower and then I think you have to reset your bearings. I hope it doesn't happen but tbh it's been rather difficult to second guess or trade the best of the last few months so personally I am prepared for anything. Incredibly the vibes and TL feels very grim now for crypto and I think that's just because we've had a swathe of good news coupled with weak price action so it's frustration on the most part....had we had no good news and this price action I think people would care less. Either way my advice to those who are frustrated/losing money right now is to consolidate to hold things you have pure conviction in (spot, not on leverage) and try to relax/focus on other stuff to ride this out.
**NFTs** - A decent day for the Yuga flagship assets as BAYC and MAYC managed to climb a little further to a 27.5ETH and 5.3ETH floor price respectively. Nakamigos were unable to hold onto their most recent pump and have dropped 8% overnight. WoY just keep keep going and are now up to a floor price of 10.8ETH marking a further 21% gain, which has made them a 5x I believe now since mint. Pretty astonishing and just goes to show there is always some value somewhere. We didn't see many large sales yesterday, something I forgot to mention is earlier this week we saw Machi Big Brother buy two Mega Mutants, one for 500ETH and another for 250ETH and he is currently bidding 500ETH for the last serum. I have to say, that guy has pretty fucking deep pockets and I'm impressed at the relentless bidding in this environment.
**REPORTS** - Today we look at SlimeSunday, an amazing artist who made it big on insta with his provocative collages, but IS now making waves in the Web3 space. This report will include a Q and A section, below is the first one.
Q1: How did you get into Web3?
A1: 2020 during Covid I was super bored and didn’t know what to do with my life. I reached out to my friend Justin Blau for some advice and to shoot the shit. Turns out he was bored too. We created SSX3LAU together and started releasing audio visual NFTs as a new creative outlet. The rest is history
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