Morning Update: Wednesday 4th Jan

Rektguy ATH and Solana bounces back!

The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.

gm

MACRO - Not a great start to the year in terms of macro - NASDAQ was down 0.75% and you had blue-chips like Tesla (-13%) and Apple (-4%) leading the charge lower. Looks like the best place to be for now is safe-havens like gold which hit another 7month high at 1865 (+1%) - maybe this translates to Bitcoin too who knows (plz god)! Thankfully at least bond yields continued to fall with the 10y now at 3.69% and we get the minutes from the last Fed meeting today. Hopefully that gives a better picture into the Feds thinking for 2023 but given the tone of previous press conferences I wouldn’t expect it to be dovish - for that we will need to see some weaker employment data and we will get the first indication of that on Friday! Futures are pointing to a marginally positive open…

CRYPTO - crypto trended lower throughout yesterday but has opened relatively strong today with ETH hitting 1250. The big outperformer continues to be SOL which hit 14 (up about 75% from the recent lows of 8) - I’m shorting this one YOLO. APE coin is still relentlessly bid going into the Yuga announcement on the 11th Jan and hit 4.2 overnight so well done everyone who has been staking! Looks like the DCG vs Gemini battle over money owed by Genesis is going to be playing out in public over the next few months as Cameron Winklevoss sent a public letter to Barry Silbert demanding Gemini Earn depositors to get their money back. Don’t expect that one to end quickly or positively - IMO this looks like its heading to an ugly bankruptcy for Genesis and a lot of bad headlines again in mainstream media. Oh and SBF pleaded not guilty - what a douchebag!

NFT - anyone getting January 2022 vibes? NFTs are mooning! Been saying this for a while but it felt like we had a massive liquidity death spiral in the Summer, most blue-chip NFTs hit their USD lower-bound in the Autumn and now going into 2023 people have liquidity and feel comfortable with the downside USD risk. The result is a big move higher across the board over the last 6 weeks. Does this continue? Some collections have done a 2-5x in the last 6 weeks so definitely tread with caution but two things to consider - 1) $APE staking and the $BLUR airdrop will definitely help sustain liquidity in Q1; 2) with people looking at things increasingly at USD again we are still down 60-80% across bluechips. In general you do not fade moves in illiquid assets when buyers have liquidity and downside is perceived as limited so I would not fade this for a while. In terms of specific collections - the Memeland Captainz mint is today and you saw Potatoz drop to around 2E after the snapshot. Ranges for opening floor price for Captainz range from 5-15. Elsewhere Sappy Seals dropped a cool piece of tech with their Meme Machine, Kaleo did some chart analysis on rektguy + we saw an ATH sale of 42.069! Theres a group of projects - Pudgy Penguins (+Lil Pudgies), Sappy Seals, The Plague, Kanpai Pandas - which all seem to be trending higher on similar value propositions of strong community leaders, great memes and marketable IP for consumer products. This is the meta dominating the market right now so pay attention!

GL today!