The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - It was a soft day for equities yesterday as we fell by 0.4% on SPX and 1.5% on NDQ. Interest rates continue to progress a bit higher which takes the curve to 434/393/382/391bps respectively across 2/5/10/30y. We did sort of have this weird standoff between Powell and the interest rate market, and the recent move suggests that maybe markets are buying into the fact that he could be right in his decision making. Payrolls next week on Friday I think will be very important and will give us a more real-time indicator of what's going on with the economy and the labour market, which Powell is so fixated on. Futures this morning are mostly unchanged and I continue to expect a quiet end to the year.
CRYPTO - Not much to add here other than we did see a bit of weakness in the last 24H in line with equities which took BTC to 16.7K and ETH back to sub 1200 respectively. Altcoins seem to be down 5-10% across the board again while $APE remarkably continues to hold up well. My fear with $APE is at some point we'll start to see people sell/unwind their tokens and when that happens I think it's going to cause a sharp move lower. However, the fact that we didn't have a huge pump into staking in the first place may mitigate that. Stability is our friend here.
NFTs - A lot of shenanigans going on with Blur rn to harvest rewards. Yesterday we saw some big wash trades on collections such as mfers which artificially inflated volumes and thus meant $BLUR farmers would earn more points by bidding on them (collections that are the most liquid and have the highest volumes get the highest rewards). Today we saw the same thing on rektguy, and it says we've done almost 5K ETH in volume in the last day or so which is obviously not a real number. What this means is in the short term, a lot of these prices are likely to continue rising because right now they are attracting some huge and heavy bids in order to farm airdrops, and as rektguy is now #1 on the chart, $BLUR farmers will out their capital there. The risk/downside is more in the medium term, some (but hopefully not all) of these farmers prob don't care to own these NFTs and will be looking to dump them at some stage when they can. There's a lot of artificial volume going through in NFTs right now with prices rising. As I mentioned last week, I was quite constructive NFT price action into the end of the year and possibly into January; my gut is we keep going higher here, but don't be the one left caught holding the bag at the end.
GL today.