The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Smalls green today with both SPX and NDQ up like 0.1-0.2%. Interest rates seem to be progressing higher, now at 453/397/378/383bps across the curve on 2/5/10/30y. I sometimes get questions on why I always write about interest rates. For me they're one of the most important things to watch in this environment and the "shape of the yield curve" is also highly important. It gives us an idea as to what the market is expecting re the Fed, inflation and any likely recession. The volatility we've seen in interest rates this year is insane, after what was like 10 years of hardly any volatility. We're at a precarious position right now where they are rather elevated but there is some possibility that the Fed could change its tune if macro data remains weak. We got some employment data today actually, ADP private payrolls which came in at +127k, vs expectations of +190k and last month's +239k. That's certainly a rather steep reduction and noteworthy as we head into non-farm payrolls on Friday (the more important number).
CRYPTO - Good strength in crypto yesterday with some nice "big green dicks" as we like to call them on the candle charts yesterday afternoon (I have to say it's quite liberating to be able to use such terminology in these recaps, something I obviously was not able to do at an investment bank to clients). BTC I believe touched 17K and ETH just shy of 1300. The price action in $APE is all the range these days and we saw a bit of weakness and underperformance vs ETH in the last 24H after it transpired that Machi Big Brother (a large holder) had sold a chunk of tokens. I don't think he has "inside info" as people allude to and actually it seems to me like he kind of just trades it around, but certainly large wallets selling is never a great sign. I'll maintain that we won't see the "real" price action for that until staking actually commences.
NFTs - After a recent period of strength, volumes seem to be dying a bit with MAYC being the top volume at 226E in the last 24H. Other than that there isn't really much to write home about but I would note that we've seen the recent price rises of most NFT projects hold, which I think is constructive. We've been in a long, long period of consolidation now for a lot of projects, expectedly so, as many tourists will have been exiting their brief foray into the market. Tailwinds still include a $BLUR airdrop and any potential price appreciation/spillover from Yuga assets when staking comes. It's also been nice to see some good activity on rektguy in the last few days, and meeting a lot of rektguys out here in Miami too; hope we can keep that going!
GL today
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