The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Not much to add here tbh other than traditional markets have been relatively firm over the last couple of sessions. SPX and NDQ ended the day a small amount higher yesterday while futures are unchanged this morning. Interest rates saw a bit of a rally yday while oil sold off. All kind of lacklustre price action but things moving in the right direction even if by a small magnitude. Tomorrow we have inflation which I think could cause a big vol event depending on whether it comes under or over (consensus is 8%).
CRYPTO - Well fuck me in 10 years of trading traditional markets and only 2 years in crypto I can honestly say I've never seen something as crazy as what just happened over the last 48H. Really quite incredible. Having claimed "FTX is fine. Assets are fine" just two days ago, SBF confirmed on Twitter the acquisition of FTX by Binance after a"significant liquidity crunch". To break it down, it seems like something went wrong at Alameda (a separate entity but also owned by SBF) and FTX must have lent a bunch of money (possibly customer deposits) to Alameda with $FTT as collateral which of course crashed. Yesterday CZ confirmed Binance would buy FTX (I'm guessing for basically next to nothing, and assume all its liabilities) but it would be subject to due diligence. That means the deal is not done, and fuck knows what other shit has been going on at FTX. I think this is why we've seen the market reaction we did, we saw an initial rally, but then people realised that the rumours about FTX were true and if the deal falls through, it's going to be a disaster given the counterparty and contagion risk stemming from both Alameda and FTX. At time of writing, BTC is back down to 17.5k, ETH at 1200 and there's been a significant 20-30% sell-off across most altcoins with some such as $APE now through YTD lows. Feels like I've been talking for weeks about how the vol in crypto has disappeared, and I guess I have to be careful what I wish for. IMO, everything is in CZ's hands now, and tbh, a lot of that also depends on how much of a mess FTX is in. One thing to consider is that if Binance steps away, it's going to be pretty horrific for crypto as a whole so CZ really has an opportunity to cement himself as a "hero" in the space as well as showing his dick size. For me, it will once again be a great buying opportunity but I think gotta wait for closer to YTD lows on stuff (I nibbled on more $APE yday) and I think I'll set some limit order for ETH 1k and below. I don't know if we get there, but I think those are attractive levels to buy some blood and be patient.
NFTs - We've seen some decent activity here with another 500E of BAYC sales which has kept that floor steady. I have to say, it's tough to ignore the 1.5K ETH of BAYC volumes now in the last 48H and if that is a leading indicator then one questions whether $APE is an interesting purchase here at $3.5, which is through the YTD lows. (Of course, I say this as a big BAYC and $APE holder so take that into account). Elsewhere we saw two more Fidenza sales totalling 300ETH, while Otherdeed and MAYC take the 3rd and 4th Volume spots with 200ETH each...more Yuga activity eh. Curious to see how NFTs react with this ETH vol, volatility is never a good thing for NFT volumes but so far we seem to be doing ok.
GL today.
-OSF