The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Equities had another strong close yesterday ending 0.9% higher on SPX and 1.5% higher on NDQ. It's worth noting that we did close off the highs of the day after news hit of Russia allegedly firing a missile in Poland, after which they have since denied responsibility. I think some were surprised we didn't see a bigger move lower in stocks and I think that's a testament to how strong stocks are right now and the fact that people are adding risk/getting "bought in" perhaps in anticipation of things turning around in 2023. Interest rates continue their rally with the curve now at 436/391/379/398bps on 2/5/10/30y and interestingly oil has stayed relatively stable at $87. Something definitely worth noting is that PPI came in a decent amount below expectations yesterday, which is yet another sign that inflation in the US is subsiding and certainly puts even more pressure on the Fed to change its tune next month.
CRYPTO - Well we have seen what can only be described as a remarkable amount of crypto stability in almost a week now, with BTC still at 16.7K and ETH at 1230. Arguably the strong macro backdrop is what is holding it up, but I will maintain that I think no news is good news and the longer the period of stability have, the higher the likelihood of a rebound, if macro continues on its path. I think the biggest medium-term concern is regulation. We certainly need it given recent events but there is certainly a risk that regulators could "over-do" it. We will just have to wait and see for now.
NFTs - A pretty impressive rebound in BAYC post the BendDAO auctions which sees the floor up 24% back up to 62E after 700E of volume, while MAYC is up 10% to 420E. This feels like the 4th or 5th time we've seen the ape floor drop ahead of the auctions, and then rally back pretty quickly right after. Elsewhere NFTs as a whole seem to be staging somewhat of a minor rebound which is nice to see, time will tell if this will have any legs or we continue to see a bleed from the FTX impact. I think there is a general theory or feeling forming that macro risk assets could bounce back in Q1 2023 with the calendar effect, I subscribe to that, I think it will affect crypto, but I'm not the fence as to whether it will bring NFTs along with it. I suppose we'll find out. GL today!
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